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Modelling shows Shuswap wildfire poses no imminent threat to structures

BC Wildfire Service continues to provide fire suppression
The red polygon shows the perimeter of the Lower East Adams Lake wildfire as of July 31, 2023, while the orange polygon represents the perimeter projected for Aug. 3. The yellow is the projected perimeter for Aug. 10. (BC Wildfire Service image.)

There’s little likelihood the 2,527-hectare Lower East Adams Lake wildfire will spread over the next 10 days to threaten structures in the vicinity.

This was according to BC Wildfire Service (BCWS) projections shared by the Columbia Shuswap Regional District (CSRD) on Wednesday afternoon, Aug. 2.

While Environment Canada forecasted temperatures reaching 34 C over the weekend in Salmon Arm, BCWS’ three- and 10-day growth projections for the Lower East Adams wildfire showed minimal growth along the southern flank – the area of concern for the community of Dorian Bay which remains on evacuation alert.

“The fire growth projected in this model is created assuming zero wildfire suppression occurs during the duration of the modelling; therefore, the model is likely to overestimate the actual growth that will happen,” reads a CSRD update on the wildfire.

Modelling shows that even with no suppression, the fire is only projected to come within 1.5-kilometres from the nearest structure. However, the CSRD said the Lower East Adams Lake Wildfire is a full response fire, “which means active fire suppression will continue through aerial operations.”

“There has been seven days of bucketing operations for the helicopter’s full daily flying limit,” said the regional district.

Growth of the wildfire has occurred on the north and west flanks, where it has burned downslope towards the lake. There has been no notable growth on the south flank towards structures.

With the current and forecasted fire behaviour, growth modelling and fire suppression, BCWS recommended rescinding parts of an evacuation alert for properties in the areas of Woolford Point and Enns Reach, as well as for an area under the jurisdiction of the Adams Lake Indian Band. The alerts were lifted on Tuesday afternoon, Aug. 1.

Residents of Dorian Bay were advised to be ready to leave on short notice if necessary.

Read more: Shuswap Lake hits another record low, prompting boat launch closures

Read more: ‘It’s heavy’: Firefighter deaths weighing on B.C. wildfire crews
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